Intuition in a Data-Driven World
Data-driven decisions are now common place, and for good reason. But what about intuition? Does gut feel still have a place?
Intuition is a pattern matching process in the brain that draws a conclusion from incomplete data. This is exactly the same process that some advanced AI techniques use. One technique that closely mimics human intuition is Bayesian Inference.
In humans it’s called the “Intuitive Bayesian” – Consider deciding on taking an umbrella, without seeing the forecast. I guess that the chance of rain is about 50% which is true for Melbourne in May. In the morning, I look out the window and see dark clouds. I adjust my intuitive probability to 75%. Then I notice that the grass is wet. It could be dew, but with the clouds it’s more likely that it rained over-night, so I adjust my intuitive probability to 85%. My brain is doing the maths automatically and I perceive it as a gut feel that it’s a good idea to take an umbrella.
Don’t discount your gut feeling at work. Your brain is taking into account all the evidence it knows and filling in the blanks. Instead, unpack that feeling to identify the evidence that led you there and use your data to confirm or deny the truth of that evidence and adjust your Intuitive Bayesian accordingly.
Harrison Assessments is a behavioural analytics tool that measures, amongst other things, the paradoxical balance between analytical and intuitive thinking.